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zakruti.com » Knowledge, science, education » Crash Course
Can We Predict An Outbreak's Future? - Modeling: Crash Course Outbreak Science #9

Can We Predict An Outbreak's Future? - Modeling: Crash Course Outbreak Science #9

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Rating: 4.0; Vote: 1
When outbreaks happen, we need to be able to predict the course they-ll take in the future, but of course we can-t run experiments on real people to figure that out. Thankfully we can simulate outbreaks and use models to find out how different scenarios could play out! In this episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science, we-ll look at what models are, how they help predict the course of an outbreak, and how we can use them to manage real world outbreaks. This episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science was produced by Complexly in partnership with Operation Outbreak and the Sabeti Lab at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard-with generous support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Date: 2022-04-04

Comments and reviews: 3


It appears you confused R with R- in the label on the graphs between 7 and 8 minutes. You change the label R- > 1 to R- = 1 and then R- < 1, but R- is supposed to be the value of R at the start of the outbreak when almost everyone is susceptible. So the value of R changes and goes through phases where R = 1 and then R < 1 but not R-.
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Hello everyone! We made an error in this episode. In the Thought Bubble, R- should become just R as time progresses past the zero time point. We apologize for any confusion. Thanks to the commenters who pointed this out, and thanks for watching and understanding!
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In the video, R-nought is described as being the value -at the beginning-, but the graphics keep calling the variable by that name even after it has changed over the course of the outbreak. Is that a typo in the graphics? Look at 7: 44.
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