Geometric Distributions and The Birthday Paradox: Crash Course Statistics #16
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Date: 2022-04-04
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Comments and reviews: 10
naihanchin
Here is some ez poker math. The rule of 4 and 2. . IF you have a Draw 4 to a straight and 4 to a flush. The math is 4 X outs, and 2Xouts. Outs, being cards needed to hit the straight or flush, so. IF you get a flush draw the the flop in Texas Holdem. you have 9 cards to hit so it's 9 X 4 + 1 OR 2on the turn. AND 9X2+2 on the river. SO on turn you have a 33% chance to hit the flush, and a 20% chance to hit on the river. Pot odds you divide your call, into the pot. IF they are the same. 33% and 20% of the pot OR cheaper. it's a good call. Otherwise, in the long run, the Pot costs you more then the % chance to hit a flush\straight you should fold. open ended staight draw has 8 cards 4 on each end and flush draws are 9 cards. that said, because the dealer kills a card each street and many player share cards you need lowering your % buy 2- 3% is a good idea.
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Here is some ez poker math. The rule of 4 and 2. . IF you have a Draw 4 to a straight and 4 to a flush. The math is 4 X outs, and 2Xouts. Outs, being cards needed to hit the straight or flush, so. IF you get a flush draw the the flop in Texas Holdem. you have 9 cards to hit so it's 9 X 4 + 1 OR 2on the turn. AND 9X2+2 on the river. SO on turn you have a 33% chance to hit the flush, and a 20% chance to hit on the river. Pot odds you divide your call, into the pot. IF they are the same. 33% and 20% of the pot OR cheaper. it's a good call. Otherwise, in the long run, the Pot costs you more then the % chance to hit a flush\straight you should fold. open ended staight draw has 8 cards 4 on each end and flush draws are 9 cards. that said, because the dealer kills a card each street and many player share cards you need lowering your % buy 2- 3% is a good idea.
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Makelka
With the example of the Pokemon cards and the cumulative geometric distribution, I would suggest instead using the binomial distribution covered in the last episode. Considering that the trials don't end, assuming you already bought 40 cards, when the Pikachu is drawn, the cumulative geometric would not represent the question: -What is the probability of getting one Pikachu in these 40 cards I've bought? - which I would think is the question you would want answered in this case. The cumulative geometric would, with larger amounts of trials, severely overestimate the probability, 18 vs 16 % with 40 cards, 39 vs 30 % with 100 cards.
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With the example of the Pokemon cards and the cumulative geometric distribution, I would suggest instead using the binomial distribution covered in the last episode. Considering that the trials don't end, assuming you already bought 40 cards, when the Pikachu is drawn, the cumulative geometric would not represent the question: -What is the probability of getting one Pikachu in these 40 cards I've bought? - which I would think is the question you would want answered in this case. The cumulative geometric would, with larger amounts of trials, severely overestimate the probability, 18 vs 16 % with 40 cards, 39 vs 30 % with 100 cards.
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Raymond
-_. we are left with the concern that probability theory isn't looking at the whole picture-like deciding where to take this year's vacation is a small bump in the budget, but a large bump might leave you without a job when you return six months later, or, what if your arch rival wins the lottery, or maybe worse what if your spouse wins the lottery and decides to move the family to 'X Isle' and retire til you divorce for boredom and spouse can marry somebody else, (If families were voting units we wouldn't have voting per person. Statistics as good-vs-bad, lacks the substance of being, worthy. _-
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-_. we are left with the concern that probability theory isn't looking at the whole picture-like deciding where to take this year's vacation is a small bump in the budget, but a large bump might leave you without a job when you return six months later, or, what if your arch rival wins the lottery, or maybe worse what if your spouse wins the lottery and decides to move the family to 'X Isle' and retire til you divorce for boredom and spouse can marry somebody else, (If families were voting units we wouldn't have voting per person. Statistics as good-vs-bad, lacks the substance of being, worthy. _-
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Saivishnu
Helpful Hint: If you want to verify if a situation is geometric there are 4 conditions:
1) each observation can be classified as a success or failure
2) n observations are independent
3) p(success) is the same for each observation
4) Variable of interest in the # of trials UNTIL success
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Helpful Hint: If you want to verify if a situation is geometric there are 4 conditions:
1) each observation can be classified as a success or failure
2) n observations are independent
3) p(success) is the same for each observation
4) Variable of interest in the # of trials UNTIL success
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COMafia
Hey, it's me again I found another idea you can make a video since I have a test tomorrow on absolutism and constitutionalism, you don't seem to have any crash course videos I can find on absolutism. Again, I would've loved to watched one of your videos for absolutism for my test.
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Hey, it's me again I found another idea you can make a video since I have a test tomorrow on absolutism and constitutionalism, you don't seem to have any crash course videos I can find on absolutism. Again, I would've loved to watched one of your videos for absolutism for my test.
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JCResDocStudt94
it cant go to infinity at all. metaphor has no place in math. it is items like this (& poorly defined multiple infinities) that make ppl feel they cant understand math topics. try it again w/ actually having infinite beans & samples. or choose clarity.
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it cant go to infinity at all. metaphor has no place in math. it is items like this (& poorly defined multiple infinities) that make ppl feel they cant understand math topics. try it again w/ actually having infinite beans & samples. or choose clarity.
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Dunkleosteus
with the jellybean example, the chance of getting a vomit flavoured bean increases each time you eat a bean that isn't vomit flavoured, because the number of vomit flavoured beans remains constant while the total number of beans decreases.
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with the jellybean example, the chance of getting a vomit flavoured bean increases each time you eat a bean that isn't vomit flavoured, because the number of vomit flavoured beans remains constant while the total number of beans decreases.
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Hugo
Statistics can help one determine how much should be waited for such an event to happen. Especially through the study of queuing theory. Will CrashCourse present a video on Poisson Processes and other stochastic stuff?
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Statistics can help one determine how much should be waited for such an event to happen. Especially through the study of queuing theory. Will CrashCourse present a video on Poisson Processes and other stochastic stuff?
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Angel
4: 47 Can some explain to me how the 89. 3/100 chance occurs before the 10th shot and not after the 10th shot? Can someone explain to me why there is a total of 92/100 chance of making the shot after the 10th try?
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4: 47 Can some explain to me how the 89. 3/100 chance occurs before the 10th shot and not after the 10th shot? Can someone explain to me why there is a total of 92/100 chance of making the shot after the 10th try?
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ncooty
These examples all rely on independent probabilities. The jelly bean example would require either (a) infinitely many jelly beans or (b) replacement. Otherwise, the probabilities aren't independent.
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These examples all rely on independent probabilities. The jelly bean example would require either (a) infinitely many jelly beans or (b) replacement. Otherwise, the probabilities aren't independent.
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