The Mathematics of Crime and Terrorism - Numberphile
video description
It seems that a model to predict the full scope of such activities could be useful for all manner of militia versus militia violence, such as gang / cartel violence, guerrilla / insurgency attacks and other things.
However, looking at the actions of the Provo's in a vacuum or even just the two groups PIRA versus BSF is an incomplete model at best. It would be like trying to track earthquake related building damage without tracking the underlying earthquakes that caused it.
Factors such as the march season could and did trigger the desire for counter actions. This can be demonstrated if PIRA attacks increased during the march season especially in areas where marchers, not BSF were guilty of violence against Catholics. The escalation event in these cases would not be a successful attack by the PIRA, but rather the initial anti-Catholic violence by a third party. It seems to me that this would of needs require a change in your modeling less you draw erroneous conclusions with your data.
Date: 2022-04-08
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Comments and reviews: 9
Anouk
Preceding a numberphile video with ensuring the audience the speaker is -a proper mathematician- feels like the equivalent of -Here's Hannah, and she's really good with numbers, aren't you Hannah? Yes you are! -
What I mean to say is, the focus on her status that is implied for other speakers actually detracts from the credibility she has as a proper mathematician. Unless she's usually known for something else I'm unaware of, which would explain why people would expect to see her here despite not necessarily having these credentials.
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Preceding a numberphile video with ensuring the audience the speaker is -a proper mathematician- feels like the equivalent of -Here's Hannah, and she's really good with numbers, aren't you Hannah? Yes you are! -
What I mean to say is, the focus on her status that is implied for other speakers actually detracts from the credibility she has as a proper mathematician. Unless she's usually known for something else I'm unaware of, which would explain why people would expect to see her here despite not necessarily having these credentials.
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Frank
Doesn't the fact of preventing the events from happening change the numbers in a way that the equation becomes less effective? In a particular area for example, the fact of reducing the number of crimes would on the short term boost the probability of a crime happening right after it (because it lowers the average) and then, on the longer term, build an average that is lower than what would happen when prevention focusses on another part of the city?
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Doesn't the fact of preventing the events from happening change the numbers in a way that the equation becomes less effective? In a particular area for example, the fact of reducing the number of crimes would on the short term boost the probability of a crime happening right after it (because it lowers the average) and then, on the longer term, build an average that is lower than what would happen when prevention focusses on another part of the city?
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Intiom
Predictive policing (mentioned at the end of the video) is used by police forces to justify targeting minorities of many kinds. The equations suggest an area is likely to have crime, so more police are sent there, inevitably catching more criminals _because more police were sent there_. This then feeds back into predictive policing algorithms making them more likely to justify the biases of the humans who have to act on them.
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Predictive policing (mentioned at the end of the video) is used by police forces to justify targeting minorities of many kinds. The equations suggest an area is likely to have crime, so more police are sent there, inevitably catching more criminals _because more police were sent there_. This then feeds back into predictive policing algorithms making them more likely to justify the biases of the humans who have to act on them.
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Masca
LOL -I hope not, I hope not. - I'm not gonna lie, I had the same question arise very quickly. And its not petty crime that could take advantage of this, but large-scale-crime type activity that could benefit. If a computer program is deploying the police force based on algorithms centered around recent crime, it would not be hard to stage a few well-timed distractions to divert patrolling away from a desired area.
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LOL -I hope not, I hope not. - I'm not gonna lie, I had the same question arise very quickly. And its not petty crime that could take advantage of this, but large-scale-crime type activity that could benefit. If a computer program is deploying the police force based on algorithms centered around recent crime, it would not be hard to stage a few well-timed distractions to divert patrolling away from a desired area.
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Saltire
Watched a doc on the BBC (that Hannah may have presented actually) where this was applied to find the location of where Jack the Ripper might have lived during his killing spree. We'll never know if the location and person they honed in on was indeed the killer, but this obviously works in other areas of crime today and is fascinating.
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Watched a doc on the BBC (that Hannah may have presented actually) where this was applied to find the location of where Jack the Ripper might have lived during his killing spree. We'll never know if the location and person they honed in on was indeed the killer, but this obviously works in other areas of crime today and is fascinating.
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Newspaper
The problem with the app is that once the police starts intervening by following its advice, the new data does not follow the same random process anymore and so the predictions will get worse and worse. It's called -Lucas critique - in economics, and it affects all problems associated with policy making and econometric estimation.
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The problem with the app is that once the police starts intervening by following its advice, the new data does not follow the same random process anymore and so the predictions will get worse and worse. It's called -Lucas critique - in economics, and it affects all problems associated with policy making and econometric estimation.
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The
The Mathematics of Makeup should be an interesting topic. If the effects are measurable, then pi, e and the golden ration should pop up all the time when applying quantities, qualities and distribution of various products. The Zero Measurement is no makeup, of course. And whither then? Only math can tell. And observations.
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The Mathematics of Makeup should be an interesting topic. If the effects are measurable, then pi, e and the golden ration should pop up all the time when applying quantities, qualities and distribution of various products. The Zero Measurement is no makeup, of course. And whither then? Only math can tell. And observations.
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education
An interesting question: Is there a correlation between how widely known these equations and principles are, and how effectively they can still be implemented? I mean, if burglars know these equations, would they change their behavior such that it no longer fits the equations?
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An interesting question: Is there a correlation between how widely known these equations and principles are, and how effectively they can still be implemented? I mean, if burglars know these equations, would they change their behavior such that it no longer fits the equations?
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VanGilder
The amount of criminals caught has increased. yeh.
But the amount of innocent people being arrested. When their only crime was being in the wrong place at a time when tension was high. Has most likely increased, also. Because people are like that.
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The amount of criminals caught has increased. yeh.
But the amount of innocent people being arrested. When their only crime was being in the wrong place at a time when tension was high. Has most likely increased, also. Because people are like that.
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