We\'re Going to Have Another Great Depression.
video description
The rest of the world does not possess the levels of domestic savings, coupled with maintaining a high population growth via immigration to duplicate this. In those countries, as economic growth drops, the impact will be more significant in terms of wealth per person.
Its possible to manage this with a well-crafted immigration policy, allowing young skilled people in to ensure high population growth, with the ensuing higher productivity off-setting the growth in population. However few countries possess such an immigration policy, possibly Australian being the closest to an ideal system. However even in that case its unlikely the levels of immigration allowed in Australia is sustainable in Europe, even if everyone is a highly educated and skilled worker.
It looks like the chance of maintaining sustainable globalisation has passed. The movement of money and jobs from the developed to the developing world, while people have moved from the developing world to the developed world, has create an unstable situation which will collapse. The nature of its collapse is unknown as I am unaware of any period in history which mirrors what is occurring right now.
Date: 2022-07-15
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Comments and reviews: 9
Daniel
I was super into it until he starts listing things that to the author are overvalued since they make no sense. What a cop-out. I like hearing opinions from every angle, but when someone says they can't understand why something is the way it is, you should know it's because they lack an understanding of the situation. I can't fully explain it either so anyone looking at this comment hopefully understands where I am coming from. NFT's are similar to trading cards. no inherent value, yet are worth so much more than their actual value. same as the Mona Lisa. Art has no intrinsic value since its value is due to its scarcity and historical importance. I'm so tired of this argument that there's going to be a financial apocalypse. people have been saying that for as long as there has been a market economy. The best part about the video is the analysis of the world's economy from his angle. I just wish it didn't have this fatalistic attitude. in fact, it makes me think about investing more in the real state market. if anyone can explain why that's a bad idea- please I welcome it.
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I was super into it until he starts listing things that to the author are overvalued since they make no sense. What a cop-out. I like hearing opinions from every angle, but when someone says they can't understand why something is the way it is, you should know it's because they lack an understanding of the situation. I can't fully explain it either so anyone looking at this comment hopefully understands where I am coming from. NFT's are similar to trading cards. no inherent value, yet are worth so much more than their actual value. same as the Mona Lisa. Art has no intrinsic value since its value is due to its scarcity and historical importance. I'm so tired of this argument that there's going to be a financial apocalypse. people have been saying that for as long as there has been a market economy. The best part about the video is the analysis of the world's economy from his angle. I just wish it didn't have this fatalistic attitude. in fact, it makes me think about investing more in the real state market. if anyone can explain why that's a bad idea- please I welcome it.
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astrothsknot
I want to point out that the remote work doesn't even need to be in the same country, especially as America's rural internet isn't great - though Starlink etc would fix that.
There's nothing stopping the job being outsourced to India, as we've already seen with secretaries and the typing pool being sent to Indian countries. we saw it in the UK about 15 years ago when people wanted to speak to call centres that had a local accent, but tech allowed that centre to be in Delhi, but staffed by brits who went there specifically for the cheaper living. I had an offer to go, but my son at the time was 17 and not finished school.
If it hadn't been for the issues that genuine call centres have with understanding UK Accents and the rise of tech support scams, the Indians could have undercut us easily. My point is, there's already precedent to the speculation.
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I want to point out that the remote work doesn't even need to be in the same country, especially as America's rural internet isn't great - though Starlink etc would fix that.
There's nothing stopping the job being outsourced to India, as we've already seen with secretaries and the typing pool being sent to Indian countries. we saw it in the UK about 15 years ago when people wanted to speak to call centres that had a local accent, but tech allowed that centre to be in Delhi, but staffed by brits who went there specifically for the cheaper living. I had an offer to go, but my son at the time was 17 and not finished school.
If it hadn't been for the issues that genuine call centres have with understanding UK Accents and the rise of tech support scams, the Indians could have undercut us easily. My point is, there's already precedent to the speculation.
reply
Dislike
Isolationism is the only thing that will save the US from globalism and war. The right supports America First policies, while the left dislikes America being the world police and hurting other countries. Those viewpoints are becoming increasingly combined into a general ideology of more isolation that will become popular among both political parties within the next couple decades at most. As 3rd world countries become more and more educated and more advanced at unprecedented rates like we see now, Americans will be undercut heavily by foreign labor at alarming rates given the rise of technology. Nearly every industry will be dominated by foreign workers, and politicians will need to re shape their stance on globalism or else they will not be re-elected. People will revolt against companies who have been welcoming globalism for years
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Isolationism is the only thing that will save the US from globalism and war. The right supports America First policies, while the left dislikes America being the world police and hurting other countries. Those viewpoints are becoming increasingly combined into a general ideology of more isolation that will become popular among both political parties within the next couple decades at most. As 3rd world countries become more and more educated and more advanced at unprecedented rates like we see now, Americans will be undercut heavily by foreign labor at alarming rates given the rise of technology. Nearly every industry will be dominated by foreign workers, and politicians will need to re shape their stance on globalism or else they will not be re-elected. People will revolt against companies who have been welcoming globalism for years
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duprog
You have a very pessimistic view of the world. The economy is not always going to go up but on the long run, we will be better off in the future. My problem is that I might not be there when that future become the present.
The world is constantly changing, that's whet makes it interesting. I prefer staying optimistic and believe in the talent and courage of the following generations just like the previous ones did for us.
Also, just because we might not be the leading countries in the future doesn't mean we will be starving. For example, Great Britain is no longer the economical super power that it was but it still doing fairly good. My advice would be to treat the emerging countries well because they will answer the same way when they are the leaders.
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You have a very pessimistic view of the world. The economy is not always going to go up but on the long run, we will be better off in the future. My problem is that I might not be there when that future become the present.
The world is constantly changing, that's whet makes it interesting. I prefer staying optimistic and believe in the talent and courage of the following generations just like the previous ones did for us.
Also, just because we might not be the leading countries in the future doesn't mean we will be starving. For example, Great Britain is no longer the economical super power that it was but it still doing fairly good. My advice would be to treat the emerging countries well because they will answer the same way when they are the leaders.
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Strykenine
It's important to note that debt isn't theoretically limited by some upper bound. It is limited by what is productive. When debt can no longer be serviced is when we hit a crisis. Debt could be much higher than it is today, but if it was backed by real growth in wages and consumption then there wouldn't be a huge problem.
Debt servicing costs eventually are what crushes economies. When they grow faster than an economy can service them bad things happen. China has a 270% debt to GDP ratio and that sounds pretty bad, but they're growing right? Now realize that China is going to have 500 million fewer people in 50 or 60 years. That is very, very scary for everyone.
Great video man.
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It's important to note that debt isn't theoretically limited by some upper bound. It is limited by what is productive. When debt can no longer be serviced is when we hit a crisis. Debt could be much higher than it is today, but if it was backed by real growth in wages and consumption then there wouldn't be a huge problem.
Debt servicing costs eventually are what crushes economies. When they grow faster than an economy can service them bad things happen. China has a 270% debt to GDP ratio and that sounds pretty bad, but they're growing right? Now realize that China is going to have 500 million fewer people in 50 or 60 years. That is very, very scary for everyone.
Great video man.
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T. Y.
This video is giving me a much different perspective on the rise of NFTs, and how quickly they fell off. Its very weird how much money is being flooded into that type of thing nowadays where it seems like anyone can use it to get rich quick before it goes bust I think this might just get worse over time, since the more money the government prints, the more ends up in the hands of rich people, who can in-turn pay off politicians to promote their own political ideologies and agendas. In a weird way, its like the government is paying the uber-wealthy to bribe them lol
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This video is giving me a much different perspective on the rise of NFTs, and how quickly they fell off. Its very weird how much money is being flooded into that type of thing nowadays where it seems like anyone can use it to get rich quick before it goes bust I think this might just get worse over time, since the more money the government prints, the more ends up in the hands of rich people, who can in-turn pay off politicians to promote their own political ideologies and agendas. In a weird way, its like the government is paying the uber-wealthy to bribe them lol
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Mohammad
I think people underestimate how Fed up the current economy is since 2008. 2008 is our Great Depression and were still living through its consequences. I dont see any impending recession coming that could be worse than what weve been through. In the Great Depression there were 20% unemployment, if you adjust the labor force participation we were there as well. We lived through a decade of low to negative wage growth. We had fed policies that helped ease it unlike the GD that gives up the illusion of better outcomes.
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I think people underestimate how Fed up the current economy is since 2008. 2008 is our Great Depression and were still living through its consequences. I dont see any impending recession coming that could be worse than what weve been through. In the Great Depression there were 20% unemployment, if you adjust the labor force participation we were there as well. We lived through a decade of low to negative wage growth. We had fed policies that helped ease it unlike the GD that gives up the illusion of better outcomes.
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Ch
Good analogy quite powerful of the bs of crony capitalism, arseholes making money doing nothing. Once expanded printed capital ends up in Main Street welfare expect inflation. text book economics expanded capital must equate to infrastructure that produces stuff that is useful to ALL society and enhances standards of living ie inflation equals productivity. Society has been dumbed down and the wrong incompetent leaders of institutions have infiltrated them.
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Good analogy quite powerful of the bs of crony capitalism, arseholes making money doing nothing. Once expanded printed capital ends up in Main Street welfare expect inflation. text book economics expanded capital must equate to infrastructure that produces stuff that is useful to ALL society and enhances standards of living ie inflation equals productivity. Society has been dumbed down and the wrong incompetent leaders of institutions have infiltrated them.
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Melancholius
But you are conflating money, which is a commodity with currency, a unit of exchange. If we used actual money, we would trade goods and services at their actual value, whereas currency allows those who manipulate the economy to bury or extract value at what is effectively a discount. The problem isn't money. It is intrinsic in the use of currency. Currency keeps the little guy enslaved.
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But you are conflating money, which is a commodity with currency, a unit of exchange. If we used actual money, we would trade goods and services at their actual value, whereas currency allows those who manipulate the economy to bury or extract value at what is effectively a discount. The problem isn't money. It is intrinsic in the use of currency. Currency keeps the little guy enslaved.
reply
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