Round 2: Is Intel Actually Screwed? Ft. Gordon of PC World
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Date: 2020-05-06
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Comments and reviews: 10
Pandalife92
Genuine prediction of what is gonna happen: Intel in terms of DIY desktop is effectively dead until I'd wager 2022 at the earliest. They are going to skip 10nm for high powered parts entirely, only releasing 14nm refreshes, largely to an uninterested public. They maybe slash prices just to keep themselves barely in the race. They release 10nm Pentium/I3 level parts to stay competitive in the OEM market. Sometime between 2022 and 2024 they will release their 7nm parts (which in terms of density I'd wager to be on par with TSMC's 5nm) though this would likely only bring them marginal success as their parts would largely be equal to Zen 5nm parts I'd bet come out the same year, if not the same quarter. Only reason I'd say Intel will be able to hit 7nm is because they have stated they will use EUV lithography for its fabrication, which should help. In terms of mobile/laptops, Intel will retain a lead, though will still lose some ground, to AMD for the foreseeable future. They do have 10nm for mobile and with the introduction of their own GPU's this will likely keep them in a favorable position. Actually I predict Nvidia will lose a good share of its low power mobile market share to Intel as manufacturers switch to the Intel GPU's. That said Intel will struggle hard to find any room in the higher wattage dGPU market, as they will almost certainly underperform the green team and be more expensive than the red. In server/enterprise markets, Intel will lose substantial ground but fight tooth and nail to retain every possible customer. They will likely push out an extremely poor yield, but ultimately necessary 10nm server part line to stay competitive, using the brute force method of literally spending billions of dollars to stay in the race. But again, they will lose a lot of ground. By 2024-2025 Intel will be back in the game in a very real sense, but by then the market will look substantially different, and they will not likely ever fully recover to their spot on the top, as Moore's law dies off and we start to see the end of the node size wars. AMD will remain an equal competitor to Intel for the foreseeable future. Unless they really drop the ball in the next couple years. It's AMD's game to lose at this point. Or, we'll all be engulfed in nuclear hellfire. Who knows? Lol
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Genuine prediction of what is gonna happen: Intel in terms of DIY desktop is effectively dead until I'd wager 2022 at the earliest. They are going to skip 10nm for high powered parts entirely, only releasing 14nm refreshes, largely to an uninterested public. They maybe slash prices just to keep themselves barely in the race. They release 10nm Pentium/I3 level parts to stay competitive in the OEM market. Sometime between 2022 and 2024 they will release their 7nm parts (which in terms of density I'd wager to be on par with TSMC's 5nm) though this would likely only bring them marginal success as their parts would largely be equal to Zen 5nm parts I'd bet come out the same year, if not the same quarter. Only reason I'd say Intel will be able to hit 7nm is because they have stated they will use EUV lithography for its fabrication, which should help. In terms of mobile/laptops, Intel will retain a lead, though will still lose some ground, to AMD for the foreseeable future. They do have 10nm for mobile and with the introduction of their own GPU's this will likely keep them in a favorable position. Actually I predict Nvidia will lose a good share of its low power mobile market share to Intel as manufacturers switch to the Intel GPU's. That said Intel will struggle hard to find any room in the higher wattage dGPU market, as they will almost certainly underperform the green team and be more expensive than the red. In server/enterprise markets, Intel will lose substantial ground but fight tooth and nail to retain every possible customer. They will likely push out an extremely poor yield, but ultimately necessary 10nm server part line to stay competitive, using the brute force method of literally spending billions of dollars to stay in the race. But again, they will lose a lot of ground. By 2024-2025 Intel will be back in the game in a very real sense, but by then the market will look substantially different, and they will not likely ever fully recover to their spot on the top, as Moore's law dies off and we start to see the end of the node size wars. AMD will remain an equal competitor to Intel for the foreseeable future. Unless they really drop the ball in the next couple years. It's AMD's game to lose at this point. Or, we'll all be engulfed in nuclear hellfire. Who knows? Lol
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Royameadow
From the present sound of circumstances, Tiger Lake will be coming out in Quarter III, Ice Lake SP will be here sometime in Late Quarter III or IV, Golden Cove (Alder Lake, Generation XII) will finally give us 0I0 Nanometers for Consumer Desktops in 202I or 2022, and let's not forget Meteor Lake (Generation XIII) in 2023; if Tiger Lake can hold back Zen II on mobile products, while Ice Lake SP and Golden Cove make up for lost time against Zen II on Desktops and Servers, then I've a feeling that once we get to Meteor Lake, Intel will be in a position where the rise of AMD (pardon the pun) will have only helped Team Blue evolve ridiculously to the point where they will be on top again, but it truly does come down to their Post 0I4 Nanometer lineup and how they produce, sell, and advertise it to the general populace. Right now, AI and Deep Learning is what Intel has over AMD on the CPU front: We need to see more from AMD in what their Zen series of architectures can do on these fronts and until they can deliver something that supersedes Intel on this subject, then all that Ryzen, Epyc, and Threadripper will pretty much be considered good for is decent to ideal Gaming and Media Production performance for a lower pricetag than what Core, Core: X Series, and Xeon deliver; Ice Lake SP and Golden Cove will be a major threat for AMD on AI and Deep Learning, especially given the roadmap up to 2025, and this will only become more true when Meteor Lake arrives in 2023 (likely Late 2022 for Core; 2023 for Meteor Lake X, this field is what AMD will have to tackle next and Intel won't make it easy for them, wishfully AI/DL/AVX 05I2 performance can be improved upon for the Zen series but we won't know how things on this front will go until they can actually show us what they're truly capable of, having more cores and faster rendering performance on your chips is good but that matters none if your feature set cannot meet up to the demands of every single workload that will possibly be wanted to be done on your resources.
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From the present sound of circumstances, Tiger Lake will be coming out in Quarter III, Ice Lake SP will be here sometime in Late Quarter III or IV, Golden Cove (Alder Lake, Generation XII) will finally give us 0I0 Nanometers for Consumer Desktops in 202I or 2022, and let's not forget Meteor Lake (Generation XIII) in 2023; if Tiger Lake can hold back Zen II on mobile products, while Ice Lake SP and Golden Cove make up for lost time against Zen II on Desktops and Servers, then I've a feeling that once we get to Meteor Lake, Intel will be in a position where the rise of AMD (pardon the pun) will have only helped Team Blue evolve ridiculously to the point where they will be on top again, but it truly does come down to their Post 0I4 Nanometer lineup and how they produce, sell, and advertise it to the general populace. Right now, AI and Deep Learning is what Intel has over AMD on the CPU front: We need to see more from AMD in what their Zen series of architectures can do on these fronts and until they can deliver something that supersedes Intel on this subject, then all that Ryzen, Epyc, and Threadripper will pretty much be considered good for is decent to ideal Gaming and Media Production performance for a lower pricetag than what Core, Core: X Series, and Xeon deliver; Ice Lake SP and Golden Cove will be a major threat for AMD on AI and Deep Learning, especially given the roadmap up to 2025, and this will only become more true when Meteor Lake arrives in 2023 (likely Late 2022 for Core; 2023 for Meteor Lake X, this field is what AMD will have to tackle next and Intel won't make it easy for them, wishfully AI/DL/AVX 05I2 performance can be improved upon for the Zen series but we won't know how things on this front will go until they can actually show us what they're truly capable of, having more cores and faster rendering performance on your chips is good but that matters none if your feature set cannot meet up to the demands of every single workload that will possibly be wanted to be done on your resources.
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Cinnabuns2009
You should talk about the 3700x outperforming the 9900k, not the higher tier chip. The 3700x! Same core count, same thread count lower clocks! DONE. Anyone running 1440p or higher monitor will see basically no benefit from running a chip that costs XXX more. Anyone GPU bound basically and if you're PCMR, well. higher pixel count is a done deal. 1080P is ballz, why is the high end discussion even including 1080P is beyond me. NO ONE spends the cash on a 9900K and runs 1080P (if they do they're total nubs. I understand that base gamer units are built on 1080p but that's not 9900K/KS and if you run 3840x1440? Makes 0 difference, 3700x all the way, hell even a 3600 is a money shot for value in that segment. Screen Real Estate TRUMPS all else for basically everything, its such a huge difference. If you graphically bottleneck your system, your CPU will last literally FOREVER! I'm still on Sandy Bridge 2600K with a 1080GTX! came from triple monitor (3x1920x1200) to now a CRG9 and damn. still have decent frame rates in games. 8 years later? Hello? If I updated JUST my Gfx card. done deal. GTG for another 2-3 years. Waiting on Navi 20 though: ) 2 systems ago I had the coveted 4400+ AMD chip OC naked on water on a DFI Lan Party 2 and DAMN I loved that setup and now I'm looking forward to 4700x and Navi 20. Its awesome to see competition in the market place again finally, after all these years. Remember the 9800Pro? That card owned everything. High hopes for Navi20 for sure.
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You should talk about the 3700x outperforming the 9900k, not the higher tier chip. The 3700x! Same core count, same thread count lower clocks! DONE. Anyone running 1440p or higher monitor will see basically no benefit from running a chip that costs XXX more. Anyone GPU bound basically and if you're PCMR, well. higher pixel count is a done deal. 1080P is ballz, why is the high end discussion even including 1080P is beyond me. NO ONE spends the cash on a 9900K and runs 1080P (if they do they're total nubs. I understand that base gamer units are built on 1080p but that's not 9900K/KS and if you run 3840x1440? Makes 0 difference, 3700x all the way, hell even a 3600 is a money shot for value in that segment. Screen Real Estate TRUMPS all else for basically everything, its such a huge difference. If you graphically bottleneck your system, your CPU will last literally FOREVER! I'm still on Sandy Bridge 2600K with a 1080GTX! came from triple monitor (3x1920x1200) to now a CRG9 and damn. still have decent frame rates in games. 8 years later? Hello? If I updated JUST my Gfx card. done deal. GTG for another 2-3 years. Waiting on Navi 20 though: ) 2 systems ago I had the coveted 4400+ AMD chip OC naked on water on a DFI Lan Party 2 and DAMN I loved that setup and now I'm looking forward to 4700x and Navi 20. Its awesome to see competition in the market place again finally, after all these years. Remember the 9800Pro? That card owned everything. High hopes for Navi20 for sure.
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John
It's like you're watching a GM vs Tesla battle play out in the chip space. Arguably you could say that Tesla had a vision of the future, and has put it into play in such a way that the rest of the auto world is now sitting up, taking notice and saying Oh hell YEAH! Tesla came to play, and by the time GM stopped sitting on their laurels (heh) TSLA has now begun to eat their lunch. Same same here between AMD and Intel. AMD management had a vision, a plan, and it's clear they are executing it to perfection (so far. Intel, by contrast, has been sitting on their name and reputation. Intel isn't out of this by any stretch. but if this was a game of Go you'd have to conceded that AMD has put a big threat on the territory INTC once considered their home province. They're in jeopardy of having it flipped to AMD. The flocking of the PC enthusiast segment to them is a harbinger INTC cannot afford to ignore. yet they don't have anything to counter it. Nothing immediate. which means INTC is scrambling and in some serious jeopardy from the longer term viewpoint of the decade of the 2020's. there's a paradigm shift setting up. one that does NOT cater to INTC. if you're a stock trading enthusiast the operative tactical game is to go short INTC. Just some thoughts. And disclosure. I'm in the midst of upgrading my aging systems. and yes. it's AMD's Threadripper 3990X series that has captured me so consider the source when reading the above. John American Net'Zen
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It's like you're watching a GM vs Tesla battle play out in the chip space. Arguably you could say that Tesla had a vision of the future, and has put it into play in such a way that the rest of the auto world is now sitting up, taking notice and saying Oh hell YEAH! Tesla came to play, and by the time GM stopped sitting on their laurels (heh) TSLA has now begun to eat their lunch. Same same here between AMD and Intel. AMD management had a vision, a plan, and it's clear they are executing it to perfection (so far. Intel, by contrast, has been sitting on their name and reputation. Intel isn't out of this by any stretch. but if this was a game of Go you'd have to conceded that AMD has put a big threat on the territory INTC once considered their home province. They're in jeopardy of having it flipped to AMD. The flocking of the PC enthusiast segment to them is a harbinger INTC cannot afford to ignore. yet they don't have anything to counter it. Nothing immediate. which means INTC is scrambling and in some serious jeopardy from the longer term viewpoint of the decade of the 2020's. there's a paradigm shift setting up. one that does NOT cater to INTC. if you're a stock trading enthusiast the operative tactical game is to go short INTC. Just some thoughts. And disclosure. I'm in the midst of upgrading my aging systems. and yes. it's AMD's Threadripper 3990X series that has captured me so consider the source when reading the above. John American Net'Zen
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XBnPC
I just put up a video where I speak about this stuff with Intel employees. There were some surprising things said during my conversations with these people. I live about 5 minutes from their Sacramento, CA office and have been able to speak with them very candidly regarding the company's current state, their mindset, employee moral, desktop and mobile CPUs, high hopes for Xe GPU's and even learned that some talent in Intel's CPU architectural design department will be leaving and going to work for AMD. And they're not doing it for the money. Check it out if you care to. I had a great time talking to these people and have kept their names anonymous as requested but I thought it was a pretty unique ability to be able to share some of the things Intel's own employee's are saying about their company and the entire competitive landscape in 2020. Always appreciate the videos btw guys. Sorry to troll on here. Just thought you might be interested to hear what they had to say as well. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication to the Uber nerds
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I just put up a video where I speak about this stuff with Intel employees. There were some surprising things said during my conversations with these people. I live about 5 minutes from their Sacramento, CA office and have been able to speak with them very candidly regarding the company's current state, their mindset, employee moral, desktop and mobile CPUs, high hopes for Xe GPU's and even learned that some talent in Intel's CPU architectural design department will be leaving and going to work for AMD. And they're not doing it for the money. Check it out if you care to. I had a great time talking to these people and have kept their names anonymous as requested but I thought it was a pretty unique ability to be able to share some of the things Intel's own employee's are saying about their company and the entire competitive landscape in 2020. Always appreciate the videos btw guys. Sorry to troll on here. Just thought you might be interested to hear what they had to say as well. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication to the Uber nerds
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sky
Only thing that's causing problems is data centres for Intel, desktop is nothing. OEMs are still buying up Intel dual core and 4 core CPUs, they don't care who is faster, OEMS just care which brand sells and that's Intel. Yes amd is selling some desktop CPUs but they are only to diy community, which is barely anything. amd made like few million profit but look at Intel still making billions every quarter. Amd with better CPUs don't equal more market share, they need to get OEMS onboard, otherwise Intel will still sell dualcores and make billion. average joes only buys from bestbuys stores and they only carry Intel based computers, Amd haven't even challenged Intel in laptop space, which is huge, way bigger than desktop, and Intel makes majority of the money from laptop and data center CPUs. Amd need to get presence in laptops and hopefully amd 4000 series laptop apu deliver and might cause some damage to Intel, until then Intel will remain mighty and will crush Amd in few years when Jim keller deliver on new CPU. Good luck to amd tho.
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Only thing that's causing problems is data centres for Intel, desktop is nothing. OEMs are still buying up Intel dual core and 4 core CPUs, they don't care who is faster, OEMS just care which brand sells and that's Intel. Yes amd is selling some desktop CPUs but they are only to diy community, which is barely anything. amd made like few million profit but look at Intel still making billions every quarter. Amd with better CPUs don't equal more market share, they need to get OEMS onboard, otherwise Intel will still sell dualcores and make billion. average joes only buys from bestbuys stores and they only carry Intel based computers, Amd haven't even challenged Intel in laptop space, which is huge, way bigger than desktop, and Intel makes majority of the money from laptop and data center CPUs. Amd need to get presence in laptops and hopefully amd 4000 series laptop apu deliver and might cause some damage to Intel, until then Intel will remain mighty and will crush Amd in few years when Jim keller deliver on new CPU. Good luck to amd tho.
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Chris
I really feel like the element missing here is just what an impact Spectre and other vulnerabilities have had on Intel's roadmap. The enterprise and cloud are so much larger than the enthusiast or PC space. Performance has been really impacted in places in the cloud and datasets with Intel that's not reflected in benchmarks. This is not something they can ignore, and I really think the reason their roadmap looks sparce is because every iterative design they had got torn up. There are major elements of their chip that must now be redesigned, and that takes years. I really think that's why we're still seeing Skylake refreshes, as anything they launched based off that and it's predecessors would contain the same faults. Sure, Intel has fixed some of the vulnerabilities, but only by disabling enhancements on the chip. So it's been back to the drawing board with them to undo a decade of design that's contained these flaws. I certainly wouldn't rule them out in the long term. But I don't think they've been in those position before either.
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I really feel like the element missing here is just what an impact Spectre and other vulnerabilities have had on Intel's roadmap. The enterprise and cloud are so much larger than the enthusiast or PC space. Performance has been really impacted in places in the cloud and datasets with Intel that's not reflected in benchmarks. This is not something they can ignore, and I really think the reason their roadmap looks sparce is because every iterative design they had got torn up. There are major elements of their chip that must now be redesigned, and that takes years. I really think that's why we're still seeing Skylake refreshes, as anything they launched based off that and it's predecessors would contain the same faults. Sure, Intel has fixed some of the vulnerabilities, but only by disabling enhancements on the chip. So it's been back to the drawing board with them to undo a decade of design that's contained these flaws. I certainly wouldn't rule them out in the long term. But I don't think they've been in those position before either.
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euskafreez
Well I don't know what the future holds for x86 cpus. But this time it is somewhat different I think, Ryzen works great just like Intel does. The AMD's K7 were great CPUs but do you remember how bad the chipset around it were? VIA chipset were junk, we had to wait for Nvidia and their Nforce2 to make work okay-ish. And by that time Intel released its P4 3. 06HT, and that CPU was the first time we saw Hyper-threading. What a difference the HT made for my workflow was tremendous! What Intel lacked in terms of pure raw performance against the K7 backed then, they made up with better stability and and better workload management thanks to Hyper-threading. My 2500+ 3200+ at home never was as good as the P4C with HT I worked with. Same thing with the A64 and A64 x2, progress were made on AMD but my X2 3800+ nor my Opteron 165 were as good as the 2c/4t with my multitask oriented use. But this time AMD is onto something. Everything works great: chipset, drivers, OS, multitask, I/O
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Well I don't know what the future holds for x86 cpus. But this time it is somewhat different I think, Ryzen works great just like Intel does. The AMD's K7 were great CPUs but do you remember how bad the chipset around it were? VIA chipset were junk, we had to wait for Nvidia and their Nforce2 to make work okay-ish. And by that time Intel released its P4 3. 06HT, and that CPU was the first time we saw Hyper-threading. What a difference the HT made for my workflow was tremendous! What Intel lacked in terms of pure raw performance against the K7 backed then, they made up with better stability and and better workload management thanks to Hyper-threading. My 2500+ 3200+ at home never was as good as the P4C with HT I worked with. Same thing with the A64 and A64 x2, progress were made on AMD but my X2 3800+ nor my Opteron 165 were as good as the 2c/4t with my multitask oriented use. But this time AMD is onto something. Everything works great: chipset, drivers, OS, multitask, I/O
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Dwayne
I am in no way an Intel or AMD fan. I use both companies when building. I dont think Intel is screwed. It is fun to sit back and say yeah AMD, take it to Intel, the god of cpus and then sit back and laugh. History has shown us that Intel will not lie down. They will crown again, like they always do. Intel has a lot more money than AMD. Technology is advancing and Intel became complacent prior to AMDs revitalization. It makes for good competition and development. If your upgrading now from a quad core, AMD is the way for price. Lets face it though, no one rushing out to buy the 3900 and 3950x. Thats not mainstream pricing. 3700 and 3600 (#1 seller) is where its at currently and the #2 best selling cpu as of today on Amazon is the 2600 at 119, that shows a ton of people still buy based on cost. Intel will bounce back, it may not be this year. I have a i7 8700k and a 3600, the i7 is my main rig, it just runs the programs I use better.
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I am in no way an Intel or AMD fan. I use both companies when building. I dont think Intel is screwed. It is fun to sit back and say yeah AMD, take it to Intel, the god of cpus and then sit back and laugh. History has shown us that Intel will not lie down. They will crown again, like they always do. Intel has a lot more money than AMD. Technology is advancing and Intel became complacent prior to AMDs revitalization. It makes for good competition and development. If your upgrading now from a quad core, AMD is the way for price. Lets face it though, no one rushing out to buy the 3900 and 3950x. Thats not mainstream pricing. 3700 and 3600 (#1 seller) is where its at currently and the #2 best selling cpu as of today on Amazon is the 2600 at 119, that shows a ton of people still buy based on cost. Intel will bounce back, it may not be this year. I have a i7 8700k and a 3600, the i7 is my main rig, it just runs the programs I use better.
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Chris
Simply said; 1. Intel has been taking punches from AMD for 3 years now without ANY real awnser. 2. While AMD is innovating with infinity fabric and chiplett designs, intel has been milking the same architecture for how many years now? (you can tell how far milked a gen is by how hot it gets on the same node) 3. Intel is losing market shares quick, fast and in a hurry. (oddly enough the stock price is doing fine) 4. Intel been promising 10mn for ages now, while amd is on 7nm with 5nm already anounced at tsmc and 3nm production kicks off at 2022. So is intel screwed? right now? Not at all, they got money, fans, tons of investors and partners and the name. while AMD is still the ''underdog'' in 10 years if they keep going the way they doing? Yes! hell yes. patience only goes so far. keep inovating or they will end like nokia, Kodak or blockbuster to name a few.
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Simply said; 1. Intel has been taking punches from AMD for 3 years now without ANY real awnser. 2. While AMD is innovating with infinity fabric and chiplett designs, intel has been milking the same architecture for how many years now? (you can tell how far milked a gen is by how hot it gets on the same node) 3. Intel is losing market shares quick, fast and in a hurry. (oddly enough the stock price is doing fine) 4. Intel been promising 10mn for ages now, while amd is on 7nm with 5nm already anounced at tsmc and 3nm production kicks off at 2022. So is intel screwed? right now? Not at all, they got money, fans, tons of investors and partners and the name. while AMD is still the ''underdog'' in 10 years if they keep going the way they doing? Yes! hell yes. patience only goes so far. keep inovating or they will end like nokia, Kodak or blockbuster to name a few.
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