Would you use a machine that predicts your future - Thomas Hofweber
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Date: 2024-05-21
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Comments and reviews: 20
connecticutaggie
The specific problem you propose is interesting in that the AI divorce prediction tool is trained on data sets that pre-date the AI divorce prediction tool so, the prediction is probably only valid if the couple marries and does not use the prediction to influence their marriage. One big factor that affects the likelihood of a divorce is communications (or lack of it. If the tool predicted a divorce and that spurred the couple to communicate more about what they wanted in the future, that could protect their marriage. One the other hand if the tool predicted they would not divorce, maybe the couple would not talk about their future since it seemed set already and that lack of communication could cause a divorce.
When using a tool, it is important to understand what the assumptions and parameters it is built on.
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The specific problem you propose is interesting in that the AI divorce prediction tool is trained on data sets that pre-date the AI divorce prediction tool so, the prediction is probably only valid if the couple marries and does not use the prediction to influence their marriage. One big factor that affects the likelihood of a divorce is communications (or lack of it. If the tool predicted a divorce and that spurred the couple to communicate more about what they wanted in the future, that could protect their marriage. One the other hand if the tool predicted they would not divorce, maybe the couple would not talk about their future since it seemed set already and that lack of communication could cause a divorce.
When using a tool, it is important to understand what the assumptions and parameters it is built on.
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tgwolf3391
I don't think it is out sourcing your decision and deferring your agency to AI if you choose to follow the prediction. It is simply getting more information about external factors that will affect you. Learning there is a 95% chance of rain when deciding whether to go out is not outsourcing your decision and deferring your agency if you choose to stay inside. In this scenario about marriage, I would tell my partner about the AI's prediction and still stay together if they are willing because in my mind if we break up know then it is pretty much the same as divorcing except with the divorce we would have had those years of happiness. But, if my partner decided to end it, I would also understand.
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I don't think it is out sourcing your decision and deferring your agency to AI if you choose to follow the prediction. It is simply getting more information about external factors that will affect you. Learning there is a 95% chance of rain when deciding whether to go out is not outsourcing your decision and deferring your agency if you choose to stay inside. In this scenario about marriage, I would tell my partner about the AI's prediction and still stay together if they are willing because in my mind if we break up know then it is pretty much the same as divorcing except with the divorce we would have had those years of happiness. But, if my partner decided to end it, I would also understand.
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dud3655
If it was truly 100% accurate, and I do end up getting a horrible prediction, then I guess that's it really, can't do anything about it, doesn't mean I'll stop caring about my life. We all gotta go someday, be it tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade, next century or next millenia, who knows somebody might even make it to the end of it all, but we will all die someday and you just have to get comfortable with that.
What matters is how you lived your life, if you think you did good, even if in the end you die in a horrible way then, you still did good in life.
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If it was truly 100% accurate, and I do end up getting a horrible prediction, then I guess that's it really, can't do anything about it, doesn't mean I'll stop caring about my life. We all gotta go someday, be it tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade, next century or next millenia, who knows somebody might even make it to the end of it all, but we will all die someday and you just have to get comfortable with that.
What matters is how you lived your life, if you think you did good, even if in the end you die in a horrible way then, you still did good in life.
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iamalexhu
This actually exists in some form. Look up the Gottman Institute - they’re a married couple who are scientists who’ve researched healthy relationships for decades. They can predict to a 95% accuracy whether a couple will divorce or stay together, just through observing them for 5 minutes.
Except in this case, they do provide reasons - the largest of which is how the couple deals with conflict, if I remember correctly. So my takeaway is that results from statistics matter, but the reasons for those results matter even more
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This actually exists in some form. Look up the Gottman Institute - they’re a married couple who are scientists who’ve researched healthy relationships for decades. They can predict to a 95% accuracy whether a couple will divorce or stay together, just through observing them for 5 minutes.
Except in this case, they do provide reasons - the largest of which is how the couple deals with conflict, if I remember correctly. So my takeaway is that results from statistics matter, but the reasons for those results matter even more
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wildersilly653
In the last month, I’ve seen AI mistake the Suez Canal for the Panama Canal, mistake the diameter of Olympius mons by a factor of 6, forget that Francis Drake was in the military, and it gave me a completely different amswer on which snake had the most dangerous venom depending on what i asked it previously (identical phrasing.
AI is cool, it can find you information quickly, but anything it says needs to be checked first, and we can’t do any checking on predictions if we dont know what is behind a given prediction.
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In the last month, I’ve seen AI mistake the Suez Canal for the Panama Canal, mistake the diameter of Olympius mons by a factor of 6, forget that Francis Drake was in the military, and it gave me a completely different amswer on which snake had the most dangerous venom depending on what i asked it previously (identical phrasing.
AI is cool, it can find you information quickly, but anything it says needs to be checked first, and we can’t do any checking on predictions if we dont know what is behind a given prediction.
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bastosluis244
To be honest, since most people are damaged and faulty by default, always making bad decisions about what to do with themselves and others around them, I think that just the simple act of checking or feeling the need to check it out already demonstrates that the couple isn't meant to be together, along with other unrelated subjects where the actor might have doubts or is unable to understand his role in society
That's why there are so many divorces already, and that's why nothing's ever going to change
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To be honest, since most people are damaged and faulty by default, always making bad decisions about what to do with themselves and others around them, I think that just the simple act of checking or feeling the need to check it out already demonstrates that the couple isn't meant to be together, along with other unrelated subjects where the actor might have doubts or is unable to understand his role in society
That's why there are so many divorces already, and that's why nothing's ever going to change
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ted_ed
Isn't the ia own accuracy also a self fulfilling prophecy Because, who are the most likely to ask an ia for relationship advice People who are already insecure in their relationship. So if the ia especially give negative answers, then the likelihood of the couple breaking up and the IA being proven right increase, because the IA answer was just an excuse the participant wanted to hear to convince them that there is indeed something wrong with their relationship, even if the IA will never explain what exactly.
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Isn't the ia own accuracy also a self fulfilling prophecy Because, who are the most likely to ask an ia for relationship advice People who are already insecure in their relationship. So if the ia especially give negative answers, then the likelihood of the couple breaking up and the IA being proven right increase, because the IA answer was just an excuse the participant wanted to hear to convince them that there is indeed something wrong with their relationship, even if the IA will never explain what exactly.
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simonmeadows7961
A big issue I have with artificial intelligence is the latter term in the name. It's not intelligent. It is not designed to be accurate; it's designed to sound plausible. The Turing Test never specified anything about insight, wit or wisdom; only whether it could convince a human that it was a fellow human. Wouldn't rely on AI on anything and never believe the output of a calculation that you cannot examine.
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A big issue I have with artificial intelligence is the latter term in the name. It's not intelligent. It is not designed to be accurate; it's designed to sound plausible. The Turing Test never specified anything about insight, wit or wisdom; only whether it could convince a human that it was a fellow human. Wouldn't rely on AI on anything and never believe the output of a calculation that you cannot examine.
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Mark_Bollinger
Let’s get metaphysical. A couple looks takes the test and it comes out yes. The once healthy couple is afraid the other will trigger a divorce and they grow unhappy and distant. That causes them to get divorced. If they hadn’t looked at the results, they would continue in their marital bliss and remain married. Are the results in a Schrodinger’s cat quantum state until they check the results
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Let’s get metaphysical. A couple looks takes the test and it comes out yes. The once healthy couple is afraid the other will trigger a divorce and they grow unhappy and distant. That causes them to get divorced. If they hadn’t looked at the results, they would continue in their marital bliss and remain married. Are the results in a Schrodinger’s cat quantum state until they check the results
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MsKoffeinjunky
Marriage rates are at an all time low, but I think people still make such important decisions without thinking them through enough.
Be it marriage, engagement, children, buying a house with your partner.
Think about how much time most people spend researching what car to buy and collection data, comparing, but the decisions above are made on gut feeling alone. Crazy in my opinion.
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Marriage rates are at an all time low, but I think people still make such important decisions without thinking them through enough.
Be it marriage, engagement, children, buying a house with your partner.
Think about how much time most people spend researching what car to buy and collection data, comparing, but the decisions above are made on gut feeling alone. Crazy in my opinion.
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char1194
I would only use it to predict things I would do anyways, regardless of the result. I've taught myself to be comfortable with taking risks, no matter how unfavourable they may be, as long as I believe it's the right thing to do. I would find using the machine to know exactly how much of a risk I'm taking to be empowering, without letting it dictate my choices
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I would only use it to predict things I would do anyways, regardless of the result. I've taught myself to be comfortable with taking risks, no matter how unfavourable they may be, as long as I believe it's the right thing to do. I would find using the machine to know exactly how much of a risk I'm taking to be empowering, without letting it dictate my choices
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Michael-hw5wk
I know my future as I have already been in contact with MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE out-of-state attorneys who assure me the court would be INSANE if they do not drop the charges given my evidence. I also know that I will NEVER work a single person who isn't a HIGHLY educated liberal EVER again as I refuse to tolerate unprofessional extremism in the workplace.
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I know my future as I have already been in contact with MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE out-of-state attorneys who assure me the court would be INSANE if they do not drop the charges given my evidence. I also know that I will NEVER work a single person who isn't a HIGHLY educated liberal EVER again as I refuse to tolerate unprofessional extremism in the workplace.
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catdogmousecheese
You know it really doesn't matter because under multiverse theory if you did see your future you could still change it by going on a different time line.
Unless, of course, the future you saw was fixed point in time in which case it'd be impossible for you to change it because the universe itself will actively stop you.
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You know it really doesn't matter because under multiverse theory if you did see your future you could still change it by going on a different time line.
Unless, of course, the future you saw was fixed point in time in which case it'd be impossible for you to change it because the universe itself will actively stop you.
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lesussie2237
Tbf if you distill it, AI is statistics in action. You're not asking a thing that thinks through reason, so why would you expect a reason It's not much different than looking at statistical data to find correlations
The AI isn't judging you. It's just showing patterns of correlation in statistical data
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Tbf if you distill it, AI is statistics in action. You're not asking a thing that thinks through reason, so why would you expect a reason It's not much different than looking at statistical data to find correlations
The AI isn't judging you. It's just showing patterns of correlation in statistical data
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stanleyduron2520
My answer is no, but the potential of AI is crazy and should not just be ignored and used to measly detect marriage success, it should be used for weather forecast, earthquake, volcano, storm detection, etc with its accuracy it might even just save lives instead of making people heartbroken type shi.
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My answer is no, but the potential of AI is crazy and should not just be ignored and used to measly detect marriage success, it should be used for weather forecast, earthquake, volcano, storm detection, etc with its accuracy it might even just save lives instead of making people heartbroken type shi.
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ShadyForest
There’s already a good way to determine this; has the couple moved in together prior to getting married If yes, chance for divorce is high. If no, chance for divorce is low. This has to do with what the couple prioritized: the commitment to each other or the next logical step in conveniences
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There’s already a good way to determine this; has the couple moved in together prior to getting married If yes, chance for divorce is high. If no, chance for divorce is low. This has to do with what the couple prioritized: the commitment to each other or the next logical step in conveniences
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The_Observer_god
You can't predict the future because of quantum mechanics; A good example is of nuclei of a radio active particle which has a 99. 999% chances of breaking but still it could break the next instant or after a millennia, we could never can correctly guess the outcome.
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You can't predict the future because of quantum mechanics; A good example is of nuclei of a radio active particle which has a 99. 999% chances of breaking but still it could break the next instant or after a millennia, we could never can correctly guess the outcome.
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Clara_linking
You can't predict the future because of quantum mechanics; A good example is of nuclei of a radio active particle which has a 99. 999% chances of breaking but still it could break the next instant or after a millennia, we could never can correctly guess the outcome
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You can't predict the future because of quantum mechanics; A good example is of nuclei of a radio active particle which has a 99. 999% chances of breaking but still it could break the next instant or after a millennia, we could never can correctly guess the outcome
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zyansheep
Interpretability research is important. Its one thing to predict what will happen given initial conditions, its another to say what should be changed about the initial conditions to ensure a given outcome.
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Interpretability research is important. Its one thing to predict what will happen given initial conditions, its another to say what should be changed about the initial conditions to ensure a given outcome.
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dylanvellut
I've seen jojo bizarre adventure and if i could learn something from it, is that fate is a force as tangible as gravity. And the one who always try to avoid it or sneak-peak on it never reach the Truth
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I've seen jojo bizarre adventure and if i could learn something from it, is that fate is a force as tangible as gravity. And the one who always try to avoid it or sneak-peak on it never reach the Truth
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