Will electric cars kill gas stations?
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Date: 2021-03-12
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Comments and reviews: 9
shotelco
As a BEV (all battery powered)/PHEV (Battery + gas powered) owner for the past 9 years; There is a physics and infrastructure problem with EV's.
tl; dr
97. 5% of American consumers DO NOT want an EV. For whatever reason, real or perceived, EV's are indeed a tiny market niche. A Grand total of about 500, 000 Tesla's (leader in BEV sales) were sold worldwide in 2020. This is only about 4% more than the same period in 2019. The Chasm failed to be crossed.
Ford (one single manufacturer) sells more of one model: F150 Pickup Trucks in a single Month, than all EV's combined in 4 Months in the U. S. Ford F-Series North American deliveries totaled 186, 562 units in Q1 2020. Almost 800, 000 for the year. That's just one model from one manufacturer. Ford enjoys racketeer-like profits on each F150 sold. EV's. not so much. In terms of all Pickup truck sales from all Manufacturers; it takes just 9 days of U. S. GAS powered pickup Trucks sales to equal 4 Months of all _Global_ EV sales. More Pickup trucks are sold in a single Month, than ALL EV's in a year. and last year represented EV's best year ever. And pickup trucks only represent 17% of all new vehicle sales.
The theory of public EV charging stations being somehow equal to gas stations is ridiculous on its face. Every single family homeowner that has an EV, also has the equivalent of a gas station. _At Home. _ It's called an Electrical Outlet. The most efficient method to fill up an EV, is done at home, overnight. EV owners living in apartments of condos have electricity, but probably not a lot of outlets where they park their cars overnight - however this can be remedied. We only need Public charging stations for convenience for long driving trips. but:
Lastly, regarding the physics problem with Public EV charging infrastructure; Consumers like convenience. It is very inconvenient to take a long road trip in a BEV, where one needs to stop every 2-3 hours, hopefully find a public charging facility (without a que to wait behind, and then spend 30 minutes to over an hour to get enough energy just to drive another 2 hours - and repeat the process. What is normally a 6 hour trip from San Jose to Los Angeles can turn into a 12 hour + ordeal depending on the BEV, the weather, and other factors gas vehicles need not concern themselves with. The solution is to have BEV's charge in the same time it takes to fill up a gas car. Although there may be some reasonably priced batteries that can achieve this within the next 10-20 years (we don't have the Luxury of that time considering the state of Climate Change, in order to pump in 100kW worth of electricity into a battery. in 10 minutes. means there must be a source to do so. This source would almost require a small power plant next door to each and every charging station. Delivering 60 kilowatt hours of energy in 10 minutes to a _single BEV, _ to get it another 200 miles of driving is staggering, much less 4 or 6 BEV draining this power simultaneously. At one Charging station. 5 BEV's charging like this in 10 minutes is equal to 20 homes electricity usage in a 24-hour day. The entire energy grid would have to be massively upgraded. .and we can't keep stable electricity to homes during a Texas cold snap.
This is just more American car-culture pie-in-the-sky vaporware - that if actually implemented would cost 10's of Trillions of dollars to equate the convenience of gas stations.
Perhaps we should stop wet-dream fantasizing about trying to make cars, an extension of the failing idealism of American Rugged Individualism, into something they can't realistically be, and concentrate more on Public transportation and confine our addiction for Rugged Individualism to bicycles.
reply
As a BEV (all battery powered)/PHEV (Battery + gas powered) owner for the past 9 years; There is a physics and infrastructure problem with EV's.
tl; dr
97. 5% of American consumers DO NOT want an EV. For whatever reason, real or perceived, EV's are indeed a tiny market niche. A Grand total of about 500, 000 Tesla's (leader in BEV sales) were sold worldwide in 2020. This is only about 4% more than the same period in 2019. The Chasm failed to be crossed.
Ford (one single manufacturer) sells more of one model: F150 Pickup Trucks in a single Month, than all EV's combined in 4 Months in the U. S. Ford F-Series North American deliveries totaled 186, 562 units in Q1 2020. Almost 800, 000 for the year. That's just one model from one manufacturer. Ford enjoys racketeer-like profits on each F150 sold. EV's. not so much. In terms of all Pickup truck sales from all Manufacturers; it takes just 9 days of U. S. GAS powered pickup Trucks sales to equal 4 Months of all _Global_ EV sales. More Pickup trucks are sold in a single Month, than ALL EV's in a year. and last year represented EV's best year ever. And pickup trucks only represent 17% of all new vehicle sales.
The theory of public EV charging stations being somehow equal to gas stations is ridiculous on its face. Every single family homeowner that has an EV, also has the equivalent of a gas station. _At Home. _ It's called an Electrical Outlet. The most efficient method to fill up an EV, is done at home, overnight. EV owners living in apartments of condos have electricity, but probably not a lot of outlets where they park their cars overnight - however this can be remedied. We only need Public charging stations for convenience for long driving trips. but:
Lastly, regarding the physics problem with Public EV charging infrastructure; Consumers like convenience. It is very inconvenient to take a long road trip in a BEV, where one needs to stop every 2-3 hours, hopefully find a public charging facility (without a que to wait behind, and then spend 30 minutes to over an hour to get enough energy just to drive another 2 hours - and repeat the process. What is normally a 6 hour trip from San Jose to Los Angeles can turn into a 12 hour + ordeal depending on the BEV, the weather, and other factors gas vehicles need not concern themselves with. The solution is to have BEV's charge in the same time it takes to fill up a gas car. Although there may be some reasonably priced batteries that can achieve this within the next 10-20 years (we don't have the Luxury of that time considering the state of Climate Change, in order to pump in 100kW worth of electricity into a battery. in 10 minutes. means there must be a source to do so. This source would almost require a small power plant next door to each and every charging station. Delivering 60 kilowatt hours of energy in 10 minutes to a _single BEV, _ to get it another 200 miles of driving is staggering, much less 4 or 6 BEV draining this power simultaneously. At one Charging station. 5 BEV's charging like this in 10 minutes is equal to 20 homes electricity usage in a 24-hour day. The entire energy grid would have to be massively upgraded. .and we can't keep stable electricity to homes during a Texas cold snap.
This is just more American car-culture pie-in-the-sky vaporware - that if actually implemented would cost 10's of Trillions of dollars to equate the convenience of gas stations.
Perhaps we should stop wet-dream fantasizing about trying to make cars, an extension of the failing idealism of American Rugged Individualism, into something they can't realistically be, and concentrate more on Public transportation and confine our addiction for Rugged Individualism to bicycles.
reply
Happy
tink of de jerbs! - Republicans
In reality, they are the ones that keep baggers employed because it's classified as a job.
When I look at jobs, I look at quality jobs, not jobs where you can be replaced on a whim if something becomes better, If you want people to be stuck at a dead end job where their job performance peaked at week 2 of their employment and therefore no raise unless legally required then sure. keep relics open beyond it's necessary disposal times, it's the reason why you still have pump attendants, walmart greeters, and town criers. hell newspaper delivery boys are obsolete at this point with print being a defunct medium.
Whenever people say think of the jobs it's more of saying get tax payers to pay to keep people employed or force them to pay more at the store to hold onto an obsolete position
Roadhouses will be safe from extinction, they get most of their revenue from the truckers coming into the restaurant and the convenience store, there are so many gas stations anyway, Australia was paying nearly 2 per litre for unleaded, they were paying 2 per litre for super.
Increasing the registration cost for vehicles would be far better for the government because it's one of those things where they already don't get enough money to pay for the paved roads. it's just like the lottery tax scam where you believe that it's helping the education when you buy a lottery ticket instead of taxing the properties more appropriately or giving federal incentives to the public schools first in disadvantaged areas and starting to pay the teachers better. Your system is broken and the people aren't willing to tear it down to fix it
reply
tink of de jerbs! - Republicans
In reality, they are the ones that keep baggers employed because it's classified as a job.
When I look at jobs, I look at quality jobs, not jobs where you can be replaced on a whim if something becomes better, If you want people to be stuck at a dead end job where their job performance peaked at week 2 of their employment and therefore no raise unless legally required then sure. keep relics open beyond it's necessary disposal times, it's the reason why you still have pump attendants, walmart greeters, and town criers. hell newspaper delivery boys are obsolete at this point with print being a defunct medium.
Whenever people say think of the jobs it's more of saying get tax payers to pay to keep people employed or force them to pay more at the store to hold onto an obsolete position
Roadhouses will be safe from extinction, they get most of their revenue from the truckers coming into the restaurant and the convenience store, there are so many gas stations anyway, Australia was paying nearly 2 per litre for unleaded, they were paying 2 per litre for super.
Increasing the registration cost for vehicles would be far better for the government because it's one of those things where they already don't get enough money to pay for the paved roads. it's just like the lottery tax scam where you believe that it's helping the education when you buy a lottery ticket instead of taxing the properties more appropriately or giving federal incentives to the public schools first in disadvantaged areas and starting to pay the teachers better. Your system is broken and the people aren't willing to tear it down to fix it
reply
roundysquares
I think another very important point to consider is the rise of autonomous vehicles. Once cars become fully autonomous, the actual ownership of one becomes insignificant to most people. Whenever you need a car, you just get one like an Uber. However, it will be pretty cheap without a driver. Elon Musk has said that this is the eventual goal of Tesla. Once all Teslas acquire full autonomy and are licensed to operate as such, they will increase prices massively and operate become a fleet operator. I imagine most other car companies are gonna follow suit and drop direct sales. These fleets might then be charged in huge charging complexes somewhere in industrial areas. At that point, hardly anyone would be charging themselves anymore.
reply
I think another very important point to consider is the rise of autonomous vehicles. Once cars become fully autonomous, the actual ownership of one becomes insignificant to most people. Whenever you need a car, you just get one like an Uber. However, it will be pretty cheap without a driver. Elon Musk has said that this is the eventual goal of Tesla. Once all Teslas acquire full autonomy and are licensed to operate as such, they will increase prices massively and operate become a fleet operator. I imagine most other car companies are gonna follow suit and drop direct sales. These fleets might then be charged in huge charging complexes somewhere in industrial areas. At that point, hardly anyone would be charging themselves anymore.
reply
Ailanthus
I would love to have an electric car! I did tons of research on them before buying my last car but ended up getting a gasoline car because I couldn't work through the issues ensuring that I could get one charged in a reliable way. I live in a major city, but there aren't many charging stations in the area where I live or where I work. I live in condo with a crazy, dysfunctional association, so getting a charger installed in the shared garage is just too difficult. I can see that someday it will eventually become a possibility.
reply
I would love to have an electric car! I did tons of research on them before buying my last car but ended up getting a gasoline car because I couldn't work through the issues ensuring that I could get one charged in a reliable way. I live in a major city, but there aren't many charging stations in the area where I live or where I work. I live in condo with a crazy, dysfunctional association, so getting a charger installed in the shared garage is just too difficult. I can see that someday it will eventually become a possibility.
reply
Path
The benefit of chargers over gas stations is you can build them anywhere you normally park. So in the future chargers will be mostly located where we already park our cars for long periods. Home, work, restaurants, shopping, etc.
For gas stations, the urban and suburban ones are generally in good locations so the land will be redeveloped for other uses. For the ones on highways, they ll probably add chargers because for long road trips you still need somewhere to take a break from driving.
reply
The benefit of chargers over gas stations is you can build them anywhere you normally park. So in the future chargers will be mostly located where we already park our cars for long periods. Home, work, restaurants, shopping, etc.
For gas stations, the urban and suburban ones are generally in good locations so the land will be redeveloped for other uses. For the ones on highways, they ll probably add chargers because for long road trips you still need somewhere to take a break from driving.
reply
Katie
This was in your Nebula version, but I lived in the apartment building next to the gas station in DC that you mentioned! When I first moved in, it was open, but then it closed after I moved. I guess new apartments would be nice, and I d be interested in the case you make but it also just reminds me of ducking into the lot as I avoided getting hit by cars while out running, so I can nostalgic for that
reply
This was in your Nebula version, but I lived in the apartment building next to the gas station in DC that you mentioned! When I first moved in, it was open, but then it closed after I moved. I guess new apartments would be nice, and I d be interested in the case you make but it also just reminds me of ducking into the lot as I avoided getting hit by cars while out running, so I can nostalgic for that
reply
Georgina
Old gas stations that can t upgrade to electric charge stations Convert into banking cafes. (C mon Capital One)
And for the ones that can upgrade, I hope to see what we have in Dallas: A Half Price Bookstore with a row of electric charger parking places. People hang around bookstores for at least 20 minutes. Add a cafe and a place to play boardgames and you have a winning combination.
reply
Old gas stations that can t upgrade to electric charge stations Convert into banking cafes. (C mon Capital One)
And for the ones that can upgrade, I hope to see what we have in Dallas: A Half Price Bookstore with a row of electric charger parking places. People hang around bookstores for at least 20 minutes. Add a cafe and a place to play boardgames and you have a winning combination.
reply
pashastookie
Some people also just are not ok with waiting at these gas stations for an extended period of time. I don't want to make a 15 hour road trip into a 24+ hour road trip. Long distance trips are the biggest obstacle for EV's to overcome in my opinion. Until I can top off a battery in a similar amout of time it takes to fill a gas tank, I'm going to pass.
reply
Some people also just are not ok with waiting at these gas stations for an extended period of time. I don't want to make a 15 hour road trip into a 24+ hour road trip. Long distance trips are the biggest obstacle for EV's to overcome in my opinion. Until I can top off a battery in a similar amout of time it takes to fill a gas tank, I'm going to pass.
reply
Enrique
I think I'd be in the 30% that wants their next car to be electic. I want my parent's next car to be electic too! But lack of charging infrastructure is a huge concern.
In the 1900s did gas stations precede car sales driving the demand? Or did car sales drive the demand for gas stations? Are we seeing similar effects with EVs?
reply
I think I'd be in the 30% that wants their next car to be electic. I want my parent's next car to be electic too! But lack of charging infrastructure is a huge concern.
In the 1900s did gas stations precede car sales driving the demand? Or did car sales drive the demand for gas stations? Are we seeing similar effects with EVs?
reply
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