The Fall of China.
video description
- people did not starve during the pandemic in China
- the Shanghai lockdown is fairly well organized
- the CCP actually sacrifices it's short-term (economic) interests for it's stability
- people in China support the lockdown policies
- there are foreign journalists in China, but liars with some audience and western puppets have been removed for a reason
- comparing the pandemic policies with the many famines before 1958-61 is rather pointless since there is no famine today
- Xi Jinping is probably no dictator but there's probably still a collective leadership by the politburo
- the details of the current politburo regime are not known to Westerners
- collapse of CCP rule has been predicted many times by various scholars and they have always failed to predict the year and the reasons up until today
- CCP collapse is wishful thinking by Westerners
- CCP collapse might happen some day but there are not many indicators for such an outcome aside from America's aggression to provoke a WW3
- the USA are interested in splitting up China and in turning it into a multitude of (neo) colonies but this scenario is getting less and less likely by the day
- the USA need to weaken China sooner than later in order to sustain their hegemony for a while
- China will probably be the most important economic, military and cultural super power in 2049 and the USA will be in a desolate state if they don't implement socialism, and if the CIA operations and US military aggressions can't halt China's rise
Date: 2022-07-15
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Comments and reviews: 9
8bit
As a mainland Chinese myself who grow up overseas, one thing im very certain of is, that it is very unlikely China would break from the inside. Chinese are one of the most nationalist culture in the world and much enhanced by today's modern one-party propaganda technology. Even somehow a revolution did happened in mainland founded by underground/offline groups, they would be brutally dissolved very quickly without news even travelling outside of their local province (city/state. Second point: video describe a terrifying future based on the current data trajectory. CHinese government is known for its frequent change in policy and the Chinese citizen's ability to adapte their value according to the current challenges, nevertheless it is the Chinese ciziten who put off the one-child policy for decades long for the prosperity of their country, im very confident they are comfortable to make a few more babies given some financial supports directly from the state government, not to mention rural area in China where living cost is much much lower than in the city, raising childern isnt a problem, once major city stops giving permit for outsiders to settle in, rural areas/3-5 tier cities would be expecting a baby boom, hence population isnt that much of a problem imo.
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As a mainland Chinese myself who grow up overseas, one thing im very certain of is, that it is very unlikely China would break from the inside. Chinese are one of the most nationalist culture in the world and much enhanced by today's modern one-party propaganda technology. Even somehow a revolution did happened in mainland founded by underground/offline groups, they would be brutally dissolved very quickly without news even travelling outside of their local province (city/state. Second point: video describe a terrifying future based on the current data trajectory. CHinese government is known for its frequent change in policy and the Chinese citizen's ability to adapte their value according to the current challenges, nevertheless it is the Chinese ciziten who put off the one-child policy for decades long for the prosperity of their country, im very confident they are comfortable to make a few more babies given some financial supports directly from the state government, not to mention rural area in China where living cost is much much lower than in the city, raising childern isnt a problem, once major city stops giving permit for outsiders to settle in, rural areas/3-5 tier cities would be expecting a baby boom, hence population isnt that much of a problem imo.
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Seamus
2: 29 I have heard conflicting reports about the social credit system. Some experts (unaffiliated with the Chinese government) say it is a myth, or at least not what many westerners make it out to be, while others say it is an invasive instrument of totalitarian control. Either way, when westerners attempt to predict what will happen with China, they are usually wrong.
In 1980 who in DC would've guessed that in forty years China, which at the time had an economy smaller than Italy's, would be the second largest economy in the world, closing in on the United States?
Likewise, the early 2010s predictions that the 21st Century would be the Chinese Century now seem as premature and silly as those who thought Japan would become the world's largest economy in the 1980s.
It is true that the CCP has lost a lot of buy-in from urban elites in coastal cities, who are fairly cynical, but did it ever have such strong buy-in in the first place?
China might be ruled by the CCP for the next 100 years, or maybe communist rule won't last another ten. Whatever happens, it will probably be the last thing that anyone expects.
reply
2: 29 I have heard conflicting reports about the social credit system. Some experts (unaffiliated with the Chinese government) say it is a myth, or at least not what many westerners make it out to be, while others say it is an invasive instrument of totalitarian control. Either way, when westerners attempt to predict what will happen with China, they are usually wrong.
In 1980 who in DC would've guessed that in forty years China, which at the time had an economy smaller than Italy's, would be the second largest economy in the world, closing in on the United States?
Likewise, the early 2010s predictions that the 21st Century would be the Chinese Century now seem as premature and silly as those who thought Japan would become the world's largest economy in the 1980s.
It is true that the CCP has lost a lot of buy-in from urban elites in coastal cities, who are fairly cynical, but did it ever have such strong buy-in in the first place?
China might be ruled by the CCP for the next 100 years, or maybe communist rule won't last another ten. Whatever happens, it will probably be the last thing that anyone expects.
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Vivien
But in chinas case, their downfall works very differently. See, every culture has a turn over like cell turn over in skin. Theres capture, civilization that leads to decadence, and then inevitable downfall caused by corruption. In Chinas case, their problem is with family obligations, that leads to manipulation and social pressure. Same pattern in every dynasty in Chinese history. The feudalism that formed since the Zhou dynasty and the Confucianism reformation that formed in the Han dynasty, created a pattern of inevitable downfall of every dynasty after the decadence and cultural progress period with every fifth emperor in every major dynasties. No matter the eunuchs or officials doing the emperors dirty work, or manipulations within the wifes and concubines families and ties, or just numbing and ignoring the fact that theres a foreign invasion and everyone in the court is finding an excuse to justify not doing anything or why the emperor just happened to listen to one person and kills all others in opposition.
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But in chinas case, their downfall works very differently. See, every culture has a turn over like cell turn over in skin. Theres capture, civilization that leads to decadence, and then inevitable downfall caused by corruption. In Chinas case, their problem is with family obligations, that leads to manipulation and social pressure. Same pattern in every dynasty in Chinese history. The feudalism that formed since the Zhou dynasty and the Confucianism reformation that formed in the Han dynasty, created a pattern of inevitable downfall of every dynasty after the decadence and cultural progress period with every fifth emperor in every major dynasties. No matter the eunuchs or officials doing the emperors dirty work, or manipulations within the wifes and concubines families and ties, or just numbing and ignoring the fact that theres a foreign invasion and everyone in the court is finding an excuse to justify not doing anything or why the emperor just happened to listen to one person and kills all others in opposition.
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DrewPicklesTheDark
The PLA pledges loyalty to the party, not the people. It's not like the US military (at least as the US military as intended, the US military underwent purges back in the Obama era, so who knows now. It's certainly possible the PLA will side with the people, but I find it unlikely both due to the aforementioned pledge they take, and also Chinese culture generally being authoritarian in general.
Also I am morbidly curious to see how the China handles this, since my whole life I have heard China will collapse in the next decade. and here it sits. Will this finally be the end of the CCP? Or another false alarm? An interesting future either way.
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The PLA pledges loyalty to the party, not the people. It's not like the US military (at least as the US military as intended, the US military underwent purges back in the Obama era, so who knows now. It's certainly possible the PLA will side with the people, but I find it unlikely both due to the aforementioned pledge they take, and also Chinese culture generally being authoritarian in general.
Also I am morbidly curious to see how the China handles this, since my whole life I have heard China will collapse in the next decade. and here it sits. Will this finally be the end of the CCP? Or another false alarm? An interesting future either way.
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8bit
dont you guys think these analysis always based on current facts and data? rarely according to the fundamental factors which affecting the decision making to the groups of leaders or a society as a whole? I mean taken one current data and make a prediction a nation would lost half of their population in a few decades is just meaningless, no government in the world would just sit there and do nothing for a few decades. the core problem ly in what whould the government do about it and how would the citizen react to it, make predictions on pratical level. these analysis sucks like highs chooler's work. unless he is doing it intentionally dramatic for the views.
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dont you guys think these analysis always based on current facts and data? rarely according to the fundamental factors which affecting the decision making to the groups of leaders or a society as a whole? I mean taken one current data and make a prediction a nation would lost half of their population in a few decades is just meaningless, no government in the world would just sit there and do nothing for a few decades. the core problem ly in what whould the government do about it and how would the citizen react to it, make predictions on pratical level. these analysis sucks like highs chooler's work. unless he is doing it intentionally dramatic for the views.
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8bit
CCP with the right people making decisions things would be 180 degrees different overnight without you even hearing any news about it until the effects hit you half a global away 2 years later. Making predictions like these without studying the inner circle of the chinese top level decision-making groups are pointless. it is like making some meaningful findings from not knowing any USA politician climate. human decision making is vital in such events especially in China
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CCP with the right people making decisions things would be 180 degrees different overnight without you even hearing any news about it until the effects hit you half a global away 2 years later. Making predictions like these without studying the inner circle of the chinese top level decision-making groups are pointless. it is like making some meaningful findings from not knowing any USA politician climate. human decision making is vital in such events especially in China
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education
You listed bunch of wrongs, many of them are right. but as long as the vast majority of people are making better living, and kids see a better future than their parents. the country won't change. As for the way you determine the reasons for a fall, America would've fallen few years ago. we love to predict, and you love to find causes based on your predicted result.
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You listed bunch of wrongs, many of them are right. but as long as the vast majority of people are making better living, and kids see a better future than their parents. the country won't change. As for the way you determine the reasons for a fall, America would've fallen few years ago. we love to predict, and you love to find causes based on your predicted result.
reply
werwar666
theres an important difference between past revolutions and modern times that never have mentioned. Powers are far better able to control and monitor the public thanks to technology. I dont know if we will witness many more revolutions without at least the support of tech companies. They have the power to manipulate public opinion in ways never before possible
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theres an important difference between past revolutions and modern times that never have mentioned. Powers are far better able to control and monitor the public thanks to technology. I dont know if we will witness many more revolutions without at least the support of tech companies. They have the power to manipulate public opinion in ways never before possible
reply
Cedric
The thing is that there's so many issues occuring in China that will cause the Gov to collapse. A big threat is the fact that 80% of its surface water is contaminated. It's groundwater is likewise pollutes because companies have been pumping pollutants into the ground water. This is killing the people, the contaminated food an water is going to be doing them in.
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The thing is that there's so many issues occuring in China that will cause the Gov to collapse. A big threat is the fact that 80% of its surface water is contaminated. It's groundwater is likewise pollutes because companies have been pumping pollutants into the ground water. This is killing the people, the contaminated food an water is going to be doing them in.
reply
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