Why the Fall of Syria Checkmates Iran & Russia
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Date: 2025-01-27
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Comments and reviews: 20
YogiMcCaw
The wild card in all of this is Trump. Trump still admires Putin, and so may not be so hot on limiting Putin's attempts to replace the Syrian bases with Libyan bases. I have never heard Trump, or anyone close to him, talk about Libya. It may not be on Trump's radar.
Trump also continues to talk negatively about NATO.
But with Turkey and Greenland both becoming very important to US interests in the coming years, Team Trump may reconsider threats to withdraw the US from NATO. Although the extreme right likes to talk about it, the realistic possibility of Greenland being bought by the US, or becoming the 51st state, are most assuredly not likely to happen.
Whether Greenland does declare independence (also very unlikely) or not, the most likely result is that both Greenland and Turkey will seek to strengthen their NATO ties through their access to valuable resources and global shipping and air routes.
Therefore if the US wants to continue to be a major influence over the Arctic and the Mediterranean, it's probably better for them to stay as the senior NATO partner. I just hope Team Trump can grasp this important point.
What's all this have to do with Syria
Well, what Turkey decides to do will of course have a profound effect on Syria, as this video clearly demonstrates. Following the chain up, what the US decides it's position is vis-a-vis NATO will have a profound effect on Turkey, and of course, all the NATO countries (read: Western Europe.
I find it very unsettling because on the one hand, Trump faces important pressure to protect US interests in Europe and the Middle East, but on the other hand, he really likes Putin and wants to play nice with him.
I don't think both are possible, so in the end, Trump is going to have to decide if his affinity for Putin wins out over protecting US interests in the Middle East.
And all that will profoundly affect the future of Syria.
reply
The wild card in all of this is Trump. Trump still admires Putin, and so may not be so hot on limiting Putin's attempts to replace the Syrian bases with Libyan bases. I have never heard Trump, or anyone close to him, talk about Libya. It may not be on Trump's radar.
Trump also continues to talk negatively about NATO.
But with Turkey and Greenland both becoming very important to US interests in the coming years, Team Trump may reconsider threats to withdraw the US from NATO. Although the extreme right likes to talk about it, the realistic possibility of Greenland being bought by the US, or becoming the 51st state, are most assuredly not likely to happen.
Whether Greenland does declare independence (also very unlikely) or not, the most likely result is that both Greenland and Turkey will seek to strengthen their NATO ties through their access to valuable resources and global shipping and air routes.
Therefore if the US wants to continue to be a major influence over the Arctic and the Mediterranean, it's probably better for them to stay as the senior NATO partner. I just hope Team Trump can grasp this important point.
What's all this have to do with Syria
Well, what Turkey decides to do will of course have a profound effect on Syria, as this video clearly demonstrates. Following the chain up, what the US decides it's position is vis-a-vis NATO will have a profound effect on Turkey, and of course, all the NATO countries (read: Western Europe.
I find it very unsettling because on the one hand, Trump faces important pressure to protect US interests in Europe and the Middle East, but on the other hand, he really likes Putin and wants to play nice with him.
I don't think both are possible, so in the end, Trump is going to have to decide if his affinity for Putin wins out over protecting US interests in the Middle East.
And all that will profoundly affect the future of Syria.
reply
TheVegetabull
Greece as part of the EU will most probably block (or at least try to block) more plans of Turkey to become an energy transit hub to Europe due to the maritime demarcation issue between the two countries, as Turkey outside of international law does not recognize maritime rights of greek islands. Moreover Israel given their recent feud with Turkey will hardly accept to pass their gas through Turkey as this would give Turkey enormous leverage over Israel. The same applies to Egypt due to Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood which Al Sisi regards as his main internal enemy.
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Greece as part of the EU will most probably block (or at least try to block) more plans of Turkey to become an energy transit hub to Europe due to the maritime demarcation issue between the two countries, as Turkey outside of international law does not recognize maritime rights of greek islands. Moreover Israel given their recent feud with Turkey will hardly accept to pass their gas through Turkey as this would give Turkey enormous leverage over Israel. The same applies to Egypt due to Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood which Al Sisi regards as his main internal enemy.
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jeremyvirin6532
Hi everyone. In Europe, it seems that with our current goal and trajectories of decarbonation, in a just 15 years (with current policies we will halves our emission/demand from fossil fuel, and the European Comission proposed a -90% reduction/demand of CO2/fossil fuels for 2040, we won’t have any need for fossiles fuel and I would like to know what will be the impact geopolitically in the region in the case we fullfill/ nearly fullfill our objectives.
Thank you for reading my comments
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Hi everyone. In Europe, it seems that with our current goal and trajectories of decarbonation, in a just 15 years (with current policies we will halves our emission/demand from fossil fuel, and the European Comission proposed a -90% reduction/demand of CO2/fossil fuels for 2040, we won’t have any need for fossiles fuel and I would like to know what will be the impact geopolitically in the region in the case we fullfill/ nearly fullfill our objectives.
Thank you for reading my comments
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arikapidgeon8933
I will say, I don't think it's correct that Hamas is on the brink of destruction. Maybe if Israel is to be believed (they are not, but according to Qassam and Anthony Blinken, they've had zero issue recruiting to pre October 7th numbers. They've also merc'd entire IDF squads in the north of Gaza with surprising consistency as of late. The fall of Assad is a big W for them, but not big enough that they can afford to open that big of a new front.
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I will say, I don't think it's correct that Hamas is on the brink of destruction. Maybe if Israel is to be believed (they are not, but according to Qassam and Anthony Blinken, they've had zero issue recruiting to pre October 7th numbers. They've also merc'd entire IDF squads in the north of Gaza with surprising consistency as of late. The fall of Assad is a big W for them, but not big enough that they can afford to open that big of a new front.
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antichamcha6544
The whole idea behind economic sanctions is to cause desperation and corruption, and then achieve the final goal of regime change. It's amazing how all our lives we never heard serious debates how how a few people are able to control the whole global financial system and decide a country X should not do business with country Y. I do't think the world has ever been so controlled.
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The whole idea behind economic sanctions is to cause desperation and corruption, and then achieve the final goal of regime change. It's amazing how all our lives we never heard serious debates how how a few people are able to control the whole global financial system and decide a country X should not do business with country Y. I do't think the world has ever been so controlled.
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PerNordic
But nevertheless it will remain a ’limited’’ proxy war in Syria, despite the efforts and heroic action that the rebel forces did to ’liberate’’ Syria and taking government power from the Assad regime. The reason it will still be a proxy war, is the ongoing clashes and conflict between Kurdish forces and the Turkish back SNA forces and Turkish forces in general.
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But nevertheless it will remain a ’limited’’ proxy war in Syria, despite the efforts and heroic action that the rebel forces did to ’liberate’’ Syria and taking government power from the Assad regime. The reason it will still be a proxy war, is the ongoing clashes and conflict between Kurdish forces and the Turkish back SNA forces and Turkish forces in general.
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michaelmattes1511
I’ll just start by saying I’m American. I’m not sure what’s happening in this comment section but I AGREE! These people are passionate about Syria and I’m with them. True patriots! Love to see this kind of patriotism for your country, you seem like a great group of people. Do what you gotta for your people man
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I’ll just start by saying I’m American. I’m not sure what’s happening in this comment section but I AGREE! These people are passionate about Syria and I’m with them. True patriots! Love to see this kind of patriotism for your country, you seem like a great group of people. Do what you gotta for your people man
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PerNordic
With the fall of the Assad regime, that will certainly ’checkmate’’ and eliminate the general threat that the so called ’Axis of resistance’’ and Iran. The threat from Iran and its proxies is vastly reduced, but still present in the Middle East. Thus the threat to Israel, the Arab countries and US military remains.
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With the fall of the Assad regime, that will certainly ’checkmate’’ and eliminate the general threat that the so called ’Axis of resistance’’ and Iran. The threat from Iran and its proxies is vastly reduced, but still present in the Middle East. Thus the threat to Israel, the Arab countries and US military remains.
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aparajitasuman9727
The big if is that Syria will stabilise. Looking at past precedents this doesn’t seem much likely. Instead, it is possible that we may see another failed state and people reminiscing good ol’ dictatorship days as is the case in Libya and Iraq.
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The big if is that Syria will stabilise. Looking at past precedents this doesn’t seem much likely. Instead, it is possible that we may see another failed state and people reminiscing good ol’ dictatorship days as is the case in Libya and Iraq.
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ojaimark
Wow. Such a significant strategic event seems like a once in a generation event after an essentially perfectly executed rebel uprising. It really makes one wonder what's the over under on how long it will take to be revealed that the US was behind it
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Wow. Such a significant strategic event seems like a once in a generation event after an essentially perfectly executed rebel uprising. It really makes one wonder what's the over under on how long it will take to be revealed that the US was behind it
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themarcusismael13
Iran has been at war with Tel Aviv What did that city to do to Iran (lol I know he meant Jerusalem, but the western practice of distilling whole countries’ governments down to their capital cities is odd. Just say the whole country name)
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Iran has been at war with Tel Aviv What did that city to do to Iran (lol I know he meant Jerusalem, but the western practice of distilling whole countries’ governments down to their capital cities is odd. Just say the whole country name)
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JmoulFrancis
The major flaw with Israel’s strategy is that its immediate victories have created more radicalised and galvanised enemies in the long-run. This is why diplomacy and non-Zionist policies should have been employed for peace in the Middle East.
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The major flaw with Israel’s strategy is that its immediate victories have created more radicalised and galvanised enemies in the long-run. This is why diplomacy and non-Zionist policies should have been employed for peace in the Middle East.
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jfwfreo
Ok so why don't the people behind the gas pipeline route it further south so it goes completely outside of the Turkish claimed area Then Turkey can't do anything about it (it might cost a bit more but it would take away any leverage Turkey has)
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Ok so why don't the people behind the gas pipeline route it further south so it goes completely outside of the Turkish claimed area Then Turkey can't do anything about it (it might cost a bit more but it would take away any leverage Turkey has)
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tarafahomsy
As a Syrian. we can argue and disagree on anything and everything. but one fact nobody can deny. Assad was a bloody dictator and a war criminal and a Syrian is and will be much better off without him. Greetings from the free Syria
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As a Syrian. we can argue and disagree on anything and everything. but one fact nobody can deny. Assad was a bloody dictator and a war criminal and a Syrian is and will be much better off without him. Greetings from the free Syria
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MourningDove-bn4dk
The Middle East is a horrible term that conflates multiple areas without making any distinctions. Syria, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, Iraq, Arabia, and Iran are all part of West Asia. What is Middle east anyway Not East
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The Middle East is a horrible term that conflates multiple areas without making any distinctions. Syria, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, Iraq, Arabia, and Iran are all part of West Asia. What is Middle east anyway Not East
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uamsnof
But how many civilians did the Israelis unalive in these campaigns, and will this boost in Israel's power make them more or less ruthless on the Palestinians Are they going to continue expanding their territory into Lebanon
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But how many civilians did the Israelis unalive in these campaigns, and will this boost in Israel's power make them more or less ruthless on the Palestinians Are they going to continue expanding their territory into Lebanon
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alumni2a692
39: 47 slightly biased thinking. Most EU countries will actually then be able to pick and choose between Qatari prices, RuZZian prices, Algerian prices, Norwegian prices and LNG prices for gas. Bid > Ask = lower prices.
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39: 47 slightly biased thinking. Most EU countries will actually then be able to pick and choose between Qatari prices, RuZZian prices, Algerian prices, Norwegian prices and LNG prices for gas. Bid > Ask = lower prices.
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dantemoose420
Casual reminder that Israel is a genocidal apartheid regime run by fundamentalist religious figure and ultranationalist zealots. It's literally no different than Iran, but we keep finding them, because Holocaust.
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Casual reminder that Israel is a genocidal apartheid regime run by fundamentalist religious figure and ultranationalist zealots. It's literally no different than Iran, but we keep finding them, because Holocaust.
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litsot5999
You cant say tel aviv when talking about israeli decision making. Israel's capital is jerusalem, and thats where the government sits. Thats like talking about usa's foreign policy and saying new york decided.
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You cant say tel aviv when talking about israeli decision making. Israel's capital is jerusalem, and thats where the government sits. Thats like talking about usa's foreign policy and saying new york decided.
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vidura
Since it is illegal by international law to conquer other territories, Israel will surely be put under sanctions and under no-fly zone.
What It won't WHAT A SURPRISE. ALSO (COINCIDENCE. HOW LONG UNTIL TKD
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Since it is illegal by international law to conquer other territories, Israel will surely be put under sanctions and under no-fly zone.
What It won't WHAT A SURPRISE. ALSO (COINCIDENCE. HOW LONG UNTIL TKD
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